CICC: general artificial intelligence and quantum computing are disruptive technologies in the next 30 years

Amara tends to underestimate the short-term impact of new technology, while people tend to overestimate the long-term impact of new technology. We believe that general artificial intelligence and quantum computing are the two most important disruptive technologies in the next 30 years. The implementation of general artificial intelligence will replace human labor and expand the boundary of human ability; the implementation of quantum computing will greatly shorten the time required for new drug development and password cracking. In the future, advanced technologies such as brain-computer interface and nano robot are expected to continue to prolong human life until immortality is realized; the process of realizing immortality may have an impact on the existing social and economic system. The direct significance of immigrating to Mars is to leave a “backup” for human civilization and provide hope for the continuation of our civilization when the earth is in crisis. The pursuit of immigration to Mars will bring about a sharp drop in the price of commercial rockets, promote the satellite Internet, and change the travel, communication, mining and other industries. General artificial intelligence and quantum computing are disruptive technologies in the next 30 years: the current artificial intelligence technology belongs to weak artificial intelligence, which can only realize a very limited part of human brain functions such as speech recognition, image recognition and simple natural language processing. With the continuous rise of the “intelligence” level of artificial intelligence, it gradually has the functions of perception, language, judgment, memory, emotion and association, which will replace more and more human labor in the future. According to an interview with 352 AI experts by researchers from Yale University and Oxford University, there is a 50% probability that artificial intelligence will completely surpass human beings [1] around 2060. On the other hand, Moore’s law has been one of the driving forces behind economic development in the past 50 years. Traditional semiconductor technology is close to the physical limit. Quantum computing is considered to be one of the methods to continue Moore’s law and enhance human computing power in some specific fields, which is expected to continue the prosperity of digital economy. Quantum computer is a computer based on the principle of quantum mechanics. With the increase of quantum bits, the computing power of quantum computer increases explosively, forming the so-called “quantum superiority”. If quantum computing can be commercialized on a large scale, it is expected to greatly shorten the time required for artificial intelligence applications such as new drug development, password cracking and search. The pursuit of immortality is one of the driving forces for human progress and evolution. In the 70 years after the war, with the improvement of medical and food supply, the average life expectancy of human increased from 45.7 years in 1950 to 71.7 years in 2015, and the global population also ushered in rapid growth. In the future, cutting-edge technologies such as brain-computer interface and nano robot are expected to continue to prolong human life, until the emergence of digital immortality and even physical immortality. Once human beings achieve immortality, it will have a great impact on the existing social and economic systems such as employment, medical care, insurance and so on. Brain computer interface (BCI) is an important tool for human immortality. With BCI, human can express ideas or manipulate devices directly through brain thoughts without language or action. Brain computer interface originated from the attempt to change the traditional human-computer interaction mode, subverting the traditional input and output mode of computer mouse, keyboard and display. Its application scenarios mainly include communication control, medical health, smart home, security and so on. The invasive interface can restore the perception of the disabled, and is expected to create a super human. < / P > < p > immigration to Mars leads the development prospect of commercial aerospace. With the continuous improvement of rocket carrying capacity and the gradual maturity of reusable rocket technology, it is a high probability event for human to complete manned Mars exploration mission around 2030. It is the “disaster situation” of “nano disaster” and “disaster of Mars”, which can provide us with a “disaster situation” of “nano disaster” and “artificial disaster” for human beings. The way for human beings to migrate to Mars is also the way for commercial space market to mature gradually. At present, the main market of commercial aerospace is communication, navigation, remote sensing, tourism and mining. The possible application scenarios include the special network communication of earth orbit satellite, the creation of global Internet of vehicles system, the promotion of home broadband penetration rate, and the supplement of ground 4G / 5G communication, which will realize information transmission and interconnection of all things in a new way. < p > < p > Roy Amara, a computer scientist at Stanford University and head of the Institute for the future, has proposed “Amara’s law”, which holds that people tend to overestimate the short-term effects of new technologies and underestimate their long-term effects. This law has been described as encouraging people to think about the long-term effects of technology. The connotation of Amara’s law is consistent with the discussion of “technological singularity”. The latter holds that according to the history of technological development, people may be approaching an event point that makes the existing technology completely abandoned or human civilization completely subverted. The world after this event is as unpredictable as a black hole. < p > < p > in the background of digital economy, futurists’ thinking reminds us that the imagination of the future social blueprint should be more open, so as to be closer to the underestimated reality. In the foreseeable future, we believe that each line technology of the core layer will not stop the pace of iteration, while the technology cross evolution and industrial enabling application at the upper level will tend to be diversified, which is expected to jump out of the boundary of human cognition of the existing world. < / P > < p > the development of digital economy has put forward higher requirements for digital collection, storage and analysis methods. Data collection equipment, data storage facilities and data analysis methods all need to be updated iteratively, creating relevant work demands, such as increasing job opportunities in related industrial chain of artificial intelligence. For individuals, they will face the loss of traditional data collection and new job opportunities and challenges. For example, in the agricultural scene, with the promotion of efficient data collection, transmission and analysis, agricultural related data can promote expert consultation in agriculture. According to the symptoms of different crops in different periods, intelligent diagnosis of possible diseases and insect disasters can reduce the artificial input in agriculture and improve the quality of food. < / P > < p > we believe that for individuals, digitization may also be accompanied by some welfare losses. First of all, the most important personal assets in the digital economy era are their own data assets. With the increasingly sophisticated data collection methods, it is very difficult to rely on personal strength to maintain the safety and reliability of their own data; secondly, some industries with low intellectual value-added will gradually realize intelligence, which may lead to the unemployment of some low skilled personnel, followed by the further development of wealth High income groups tend to increase wealth inequality. < / P > < p > the digital economy will promote the digital transformation of enterprises, and have an impact on the whole process of enterprise supply chain, production mode, sales and enterprise operation. Digitalization brings accurate prediction of raw material demand, reduces inventory loss of enterprises, and realizes accurate connection between supply and demand of upstream and downstream enterprises, so as to improve the overall supply chain efficiency of enterprises. In the production mode, from the past large order production to flexible production, improve the rapid response ability to adapt to the downstream personalized demand. At the same time, the accumulation of massive data and the continuous innovation of data mining methods will also deepen the understanding and prediction of downstream demand of enterprises, and achieve more targeted precision marketing in sales. Furthermore, the enterprise’s own operation mode will also undergo profound changes, remote office will become the mainstream, communication efficiency will be improved, and the overall operation efficiency of the enterprise will be improved. The continuous accumulation of data will also lead to a dominant industrial pattern more common in the digital economy era, and even realize the monopoly of multiple business fields. Once enterprises can quickly establish data advantages through the early data accumulation, they can improve the sales ability and service quality on the basis of data advantages, and bring more data accumulation. The positive feedback process of self strengthening will eventually lead to the increase of data We believe that the business model that can effectively utilize existing data and continuously obtain massive data will be successful. Internally, the digital economy will enhance the economic vitality and bring about the overall economic growth, so as to enhance the tax level of the government, and promote the further strengthening and improvement of public infrastructure and national defense. At the same time, with the efficient collection and transmission of data, the digital economy makes it more convenient for the state as an authority to supervise the behavior of enterprises and individuals, and improves the overall economy The transparency of economic operation is also conducive to the government to formulate corresponding fiscal and monetary policies according to the actual situation of the economy. From the perspective of foreign countries, national data security has become the lifeblood of the country. Countries with technological advantages may be able to monitor the data of low-tech countries. < / P > < p > we expect that by 2050, thanks to the full empowerment of traditional industries by digital means, human life will become more intelligent and convenient due to the improvement of digital level. In the future, a high security database for each individual may be derived, and the data derived from the individual’s historical behavior will be used to provide specific intelligent solutions for individuals. There will be earth shaking changes in all aspects of human “clothing, food, housing and transportation”. < / P > < p > in the shopping scene, physical shopping malls may no longer exist: with the continuous penetration of AR / VR technology, people can shop quickly even at home. Even if they do not visit the mall in person, they can also try on virtual clothes and hats by AR means, and place orders through the Internet. < / P > < p > living scene, popularization of smart home and improvement of living environment automation rate: as the core entrance of smart home system, smart speaker may be replaced by more intelligent companion robot; companion robot may be deeply integrated into various scenes of people’s home life, become a member of family, and provide intelligent home service for all members. < / P > < p > in the travel scenario, L5 level automatic driving has become a reality: by 2050, the highest level of automatic driving has entered ordinary people’s homes and become an essential tool for people to travel, and the speed and safety of transportation have been greatly improved. < / P > < p > social scene, virtual identity social interaction or become the new normal: as depicted in science fiction movies, human beings may no longer be satisfied with social contact in real scenes in the future society. A virtual world for fully meeting the needs of human entertainment and social interaction is fully unfolded, in which everyone has his own image and carries out more extensive social activities through virtual image; even if In different countries, you can also establish contact in the virtual world at any time, and communicate more vividly through the virtual image. In addition, there may be “universal translators” that allow people in different languages to communicate instantly. < / P > < p > not only daily life details such as “clothing, food, housing and transportation”, but also great changes will occur due to the development of digital economy. < / P > < p > popularization of intelligent hardware and data-based health management: through the collection and analysis of individual health data by intelligent wearable devices, we can clearly understand personal health habits. In addition, the life model constructed by a large number of individual data will also enable everyone to become their own family doctor, making them more independent