As we all know, we launched the iPhone at the end of September last year. This year, we expect it to be available in a few weeks. < p > < p > in the summer of July this year, apple held a conference call on the third quarter of 2020 earnings, and Apple’s chief financial officer, Luca Maestri, admitted that the new iPhone had to be delayed. As a result, the iPhone 12 will not be officially released until mid October, and then it will not be delivered until October 23, while the iPhone 12 mini and iPhone 12 Pro Max will not be shipped until November 13.
if you are just an ordinary consumer, maybe iPhone postponed the sale, just to let you buy a little better later; if you are a Android fan, perhaps even less feeling, will only make complaints about this new iPhone Tucao. But you may not have thought about the impact of the iPhone extension to November on the industry as a whole. < / P > < p > but since this is not the first time that the iPhone has been postponed, why does this delay have an impact on apple and even the industry? The reason is that even though the delivery time of the iPhone has been delayed several times, it has not been possible for years to wait until the end of October like the iPhone 12. What’s more, the lowest and highest selling price of the iPhone 12 series, the iPhone 12 mini and the iPhone 12 Pro max, will not be available until mid November. As mentioned by Odin in analyzing Apple’s Q3 results, Apple’s performance in the fourth quarter of 2020 is likely to be affected due to the delay in the iPhone’s launch date. But I didn’t expect that Apple would eventually postpone the delivery date to late October, and some core products would not be available until November. As a result, Apple will also lose a whole month’s iPhone revenue in the first quarter of 2021. < p > < p > for many years, Apple has been suffering from the so-called “iPhone dependence”: iPhone revenue accounts for 69% of Apple’s quarterly performance; however, due to the saturation of the smartphone market in recent years, the growth of iPhone has slowed down, which also directly reduces Apple’s performance. Therefore, Apple has been trying to expand new growth points in recent years to get rid of such iPhone dependence. But getting rid of iPhone addiction is not easy. Because the iPhone accounts for too much of Apple’s revenue, even if other businesses such as apple watch and software services grow at a high speed, if the iPhone can’t keep growing, it will be difficult for apple to deliver a brilliant financial report. < p > < p > from 2013, Apple’s first quarter of each year has been the best quarter of the whole year, and one quarter’s performance has accounted for more than 30% of the whole year. In addition, since 2015, iPhone has accounted for 60% of the revenue of the quarter. Imagine that iPhone revenue in a single quarter has exceeded $50 billion, more than twice the full year revenue of Qualcomm in 2019. So in the past three months, Apple has made 20% of its annual revenue from selling iPhones alone. < / P > < p > due to the huge iPhone sales in the first week of the fourth quarter of Apple will be moved to the first quarter, which will make up for Apple’s performance in the first quarter of 2021 to a certain extent. But digitime still expects Apple’s iPhone sales to drop to 63 million to 68 million because of the delay. According to IDC data, Apple sold 73.8 million iPhones from October to December 2019, which means that the delay will lead to a year-on-year drop of 8% – 14%. < / P > < p > why is Apple’s first quarter performance so important? First of all, as mentioned earlier, Apple has changed its iPhone launch to the end of September since 2011, and the first quarter of each year happens to be the first full quarter after the iPhone is launched. The second is the traditional Chinese sales season “double 11”, which happens to be from the beginning of November to the middle of November, while the traditional sales peak season of the United States is Thanksgiving in late November. The importance of double-11 is self-evident, and Thanksgiving in the United States is accompanied by two important shopping days: the first Friday after Thanksgiving, known as “Black Friday”, is a barometer of offline shopping in the United States, and the following Monday is called “online Monday”, which is the peak of online shopping in the United States. In terms of geographical location, the United States is the largest market for apple, while China is the market with the largest sales potential. However, the iPhone 12 delivery date is very close to the shopping season of the two major markets in China and the United States, bringing hidden worries to Apple’s performance. < / P > < p > in the past two years, the product matrix of iPhones shows a bipolar distribution: the best products are entry-level products, the second are flagship products, and the middle end products are the worst. Is Guo’s research correct or mixpanel’s data accurate? At present, we don’t know, but I believe that this polarized sales distribution will be more obvious in the Chinese market. However, this time, apple lacks the entry-level brand and the flagship brand in the “double-11”, which will inevitably have a certain impact on the performance of the current quarter. < / P > < p > in addition, the iPhone 12 mini and pro Max can barely catch up with the Thanksgiving season in the United States, but the rush delivery time may also affect Apple’s distribution arrangement. After all, at present, the epidemic situation in the United States is still serious, and the global logistics and freight transportation system is not as flexible and fast as ever. It is still a great challenge for apple to deliver a large number of iPhones to channels or express them directly to users who have already purchased in advance, which has disrupted the distribution and deployment of iPhone sales channels. < / P > < p > in addition to Apple’s performance relying on the iPhone, because the iPhone relies on the carrier as a sales channel in the U.S. market, the U.S. operators are also looking forward to the new 5g iPhone. 5g coverage in the United States has been limited by the spectrum, and it is difficult to expand rapidly. Some analysts pointed out that operators also expect the early launch of 5g iPhone, so that they can attract more users to choose 5g packages, so as to accelerate the development of 5g in the United States. < / P > < p > at present, we can’t know exactly how much impact the delay will bring to apple. After all, if you want to buy an iPhone, you will buy it two months later. Even if it has an impact on the current quarter, as long as the capacity is enough, it can still make up for it in the next quarter. The prerequisite is that iPhone capacity must be adequate. < / P > < p > don’t get me wrong. After all, it doesn’t mean that no one wants the iPhone 12. Even if the iPhone 12 is delayed, considering that this year is Apple’s transition from 4G to 5g, the financial sector generally believes that the iPhone 12 will bring about a wave of phone changes in the new quarter, and even achieve double-digit sales growth. According to IDC, Apple sold about 73.8 million iPhones from October to December last year. If it wants to achieve at least 10% growth, Apple will sell 81 million iPhones in these two areas. < / P > < p > is there a wave of iPhone changes? Is the number too high? Odin cannot estimate. But one thing is certain: the iPhone 12 is delayed, which means the iPhone 12’s mass production date is also delayed. This means that even if consumers don’t buy less because the iPhone 12 missed the shopping season, the iPhone 12 series may still be unable to meet its initial sales target because of the shortage of supply. Guo also admitted in a recent report that the iPhone 12 series may miss some of the peak season demand in Europe and the United States due to tight supply at the early stage of the launch. It is understood that the iPhone has always been in mass production in June, but Guo has disclosed in April that the 6.1-inch iPhone 12 may enter mass production in September, and the 6.7-inch iPhone 12 Pro Max production may be postponed to October. According to the online news that Jon prossor obtained the leaked video at the end of August, it is estimated that it is the iPhone 12 Pro Max in the PVT Test stage. He directly said that the mass production of the iPhone 12 Max Pro would not start until one month later, indirectly proving that the iPhone 12 Max Pro has only entered the mass production stage recently. Currently, the 6.1-inch iPhone 12 / 12 Pro has entered mass production in August, and there is still no shortage information so far, so the inventory estimation is still optimistic. The production capacity of the mini / Max has just entered the stage of mass production in the near future. < / P > < p > as of the deadline, we are not sure whether Apple has enough capacity to cope with the shopping peak of double 11 and Thanksgiving. What kind of pressure will be put on Apple’s supply chain if the iPhone is delayed for three months before mass production? < / P > < p > suppose that last year, the iPhone sold more than 10 million units in the first week of September, and about 73.8 million units in the first quarter from October to December, a total of about 85 million units. It is known that the iPhone 11 was in mass production in July last year, when Apple had to produce an average of more than 14 million iPhones a month in six months. But if Apple’s iPhone 12 doesn’t start mass production until September, with a capacity of at least 75 million units, Apple will produce an average of more than 18.75 million iPhones a month in the four months. < p > < p > this means that Apple wants iPhone sales not to decline this quarter, and the supply chain needs to speed up by at least 33.9%. However, as we all know, the National Day golden week in October is often the biggest obstacle to production. < / P > < p > in order to make up for the gap in production capacity, according to the news, Foxconn and Asustek’s production lines in China also “voluntarily work overtime” during the National Day golden week, and even maintain 24-hour uninterrupted production. It is also reported that Foxconn and other companies have deployed several times the overtime pay to catch up with the progress, and the production cost naturally increases substantially. In addition, in the past, in order to catch up with the shopping season, apple used a lot of high-cost air logistics. It is estimated that in order to catch up with the shipment, Apple will have to increase the logistics cost greatly and use air transportation again. < / P > < p > after all, for the supply chain, Apple’s orders have a huge impact on its performance, as you can see from the example of lichen precision. These supply chains have suffered a lot during the outbreak at the beginning of the year, but if the iPhone shipment volume is greatly reduced due to production capacity, the performance will inevitably be affected. Guo Mingji, who is familiar with Apple’s supply chain, has already indicated that the iPhone parts shipment volume in this quarter is difficult to reflect the real demand for iPhone, which constitutes an uncertain factor for the future share price of Apple’s supply chain. < / P > < p > for now, we don’t know exactly how much the delay in iPhone sales will have on Apple’s performance. But it is certain that the postponement of the iPhone sale will certainly have a huge impact on the surrounding related industries. You should know that although the iPhone business itself is huge, the iPhone related accessories industry is also very huge. Mobile phone case, film, charger, charging line and so on constitute the market of mobile phone accessories worth 100 billion yuan. < / P > < p > users are willing to buy expensive iPhones, so they naturally have strong spending power. Moreover, these users buy iPhones because of Apple’s design, which also makes them pay more attention to the maintenance of mobile phones and the related personalized appearance design. Therefore, they become the favorite of accessory factories. Every time an iPhone launches a new product, it will be a carnival for the accessory factory. But this time the iPhone is delayed and may miss the shopping season. Even if Apple itself is not seriously affected, the mobile accessories industry will be affected to a certain extent. < / P > < p > after all, mobile phone accessories are far cheaper than mobile phones, and many mobile phone accessories also take personalization as the selling point, which just reflects that mobile phone accessories are typical FMCG products, and consumers’ irrational shopping impulse should be paid more attention to when promoting promotion. There is no doubt that the factors that can effectively promote users’ shopping impulse are full of various kinds