Mutation makes the new coronavirus spread 10 times faster? Expert interpretation: unlikely

A few days ago, some media reported that Malaysian Health Ministry officials claimed that the spread speed of the d614g mutant strain of the new coronavirus may be 10 times faster than that of the general strain. < / P > < p > a stone stirs a thousand waves. Netizens have commented: “originally spread has been very fast, and then mutation…” “The epidemic situation accelerates the mutation, the harm doubles the spread” There are also various strategies, such as “spread 10 times faster Give your child this vaccine no later than October… ” There are also many different views. < / P > < p > is this 10 times statement reliable? Will the d614g mutation make the developed vaccine ineffective? The reporter interviewed a number of Virology experts at home and abroad, who said they did not agree with the statement that “mutation makes the spread of new coronavirus 10 times faster”. < / P > < p > “the emergence of d614g mutant strain is not a new thing. Judging from the reported situation of the sequencing sequence database of the new coronavirus we monitored, the mutation of this site appeared very early.” A person in charge of the field of bioinformatics data said that the d614g mutant strain appeared in Malaysia as early as March. < / P > < p > the d614g mutant strain was found in Malaysia in March, but the related research of spreading 10 times faster was carried out in July. This shows that the d614g mutation claimed by Malaysian officials is not directly related to the 10 times faster transmission. < / P > < p > “We searched the sequence database of new coronavirus, and the sequence of Malaysia was collected at the end of may at the latest. There is no sequence information of July based on this research.” The person in charge said that only with the existing information and data, there is no way to support the conclusion that d614g mutation makes the propagation speed 10 times faster. If the new strain d6110 does not spread at the same rate as other strains, it will not spread at the same time. < / P > < p > “some opinions are unreliable and worthy of being accepted and commented. There should be a criterion for judging, such as whether an academic paper has been published or not.” The person in charge suggested that the papers published by the journal not only have research methods, detailed data and conclusions, but also have undergone peer review and editorial review, so they are more reliable. The novel coronavirus pneumonia, which was found in the papers by

media, clearly indicated that D614G mutation may be associated with higher viral load in patients with new crown pneumonia but not related to the severity of disease. This conclusion is based on the team’s investigation of 999 patients. This conclusion is rarely mentioned in media reports. < / P > < p > one is to judge according to the viral load of patients, which implies a hypothesis that a patient carries more viruses and has stronger infectious power. This is just like a sack of rice and a small plastic bag of rice, the former will affect a larger area; < / P > < p > the other is the verification at the cell level. By comparing the mutant strain with the original new coronavirus, we can compare the number of infected cells under the same virus titer. < / P > < p > according to the first method, the latest online article entitled “the hypothesis is reasonable, but in practice, some transmission may occur in the early stage, so high viral load may not be a direct reflection of the transmission potential. < / P > < p > for the second method, the article indicates that the ability of virus to infect cells in the process of culture is determined without considering the influence of other viruses or host proteins, and the interaction between human and pathogen as a whole. < / P > < p > “it’s really far fetched to extend from cells to people.” Li Kefeng, an associate professor at the University of California, San Diego Medical Center, told Science and Technology Daily that it is impossible to quantify the transmission force through cell level experiments. < / P > < p > “animal tests may be more reliable.” Li Kefeng said, however, it is necessary to build a new coronavirus related model animal. On the basis of finding out the rules of the disease, through rigorous experimental design, we need to calculate the infection rate and mortality rate to obtain more reliable conclusions. Because of the fast conclusion of cell experiment, we are eager to publish, but the reliability of the conclusion will be greatly reduced. It means that the R P value of infectious diseases is almost 4-3 times faster than that of human beings. < / P > < p > “according to the analysis of more than 80000 new coronavirus sequences, the number of d614g mutated virus sequences is about 80%.” The person in charge of the field of bioinformatics data said that excluding some cases of sequencing but not publicly included, we can basically draw the conclusion that this kind of variation has become dominant. < / P > < p > as summarized in the title of “the meaning of variation” above: what d614g mutation means for a pandemic remains unclear. But the article also believes that: whether the experience of Ebola epidemic from 2013 to 2016, or based on the data of in vitro infection, it is impossible to draw the conclusion that only one mutation has a significant impact on a large number of diverse populations. < / P > < p > the summary of the changes of new coronavirus should be three-dimensional, not only focus on the transmission speed. In some countries, the number of children with severe infection has sharply decreased and the number of children with severe infection has sharply increased. < / P > < p > regarding the question of whether d614g mutation will affect the vaccine effect, the above-mentioned responsible person explained that although site 614 is on S protein, it is not on the vaccine target region of S protein. How to understand < / P > < p >? It can be understood that it may be on the “key handle”, and the current vaccine design is mostly based on the functional region of S protein. For example, China’s recombinant protein vaccine selects the core fragment of S protein. On the premise of producing immune effect, the smaller the recombinant protein fragment, the smaller the side effect of the vaccine. < / P > < p > according to the relevant literature, the 614 amino acid of S protein is located on the surface of spinous protein protomer, and is associated with the adjacent promoter according to the stereoconformation of the protein. Because the protein is a three-dimensional structure, the change of a site may also lead to the adjustment of protein structure, so the effect of variation still needs to follow up. < / P > < p > relevant researchers said that if the uploaded sequence can contain information such as whether the patient from which the sequence originated died, whether the patient was asymptomatic infected or mild, it will help bioinformatics scholars obtain more useful and closer to the real world analysis. Fifth personality will be updated, please remember your game account, otherwise you may not be able to play normally